Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 119.415116 137.436394 157.923106 183.075098 213.310852 248.723486 293.684797
2025-12-14 96.792826 119.670055 148.106812 186.554865 237.963095 305.469758 402.764757
2025-12-21 81.795029 106.372439 138.942685 186.234522 254.819678 353.414147 511.187499
2025-12-28 75.023947 101.844769 139.397791 197.456773 288.072487 429.794184 680.707870
2026-01-04 69.185810 97.331350 138.603455 205.943745 318.049279 507.248161 875.424280
2026-01-11 64.094589 92.974957 137.055668 212.480542 345.561231 586.522770 1099.696074
2026-01-18 59.178500 88.124324 133.858285 215.441290 367.056277 659.788177 1338.504718
2026-01-25 54.512964 83.036786 129.479665 215.429786 382.774592 725.456218 1586.249107
2026-02-01 49.719427 77.175251 123.018022 210.540116 387.901306 770.286078 1802.513381
2026-02-08 45.526481 71.865018 116.846151 205.181703 390.891615 811.002201 2025.966295
2026-02-15 41.963450 67.270592 111.399332 200.368689 394.001179 852.672562 2271.840568
2026-02-22 41.213355 67.471212 114.581884 213.083886 438.145551 1007.568601 2953.667671
2026-03-01 39.018568 64.971771 112.627246 215.295123 459.590712 1113.349624 3551.976943
2026-03-08 37.285028 63.152539 111.774662 219.772507 487.768229 1248.668287 4370.454801
2026-03-15 35.197546 60.476703 108.940590 219.426382 503.722586 1354.055675 5157.772732
2026-03-22 34.703396 60.767272 112.064510 233.172313 560.590488 1613.497769 6948.819387
2026-03-29 33.887894 60.347823 113.663038 243.587335 611.189724 1876.848952 9126.270473
2026-04-05 32.905414 59.500817 114.249902 251.621890 657.189837 2147.771129 11794.617709
2026-04-12 31.640051 57.967754 113.176080 255.264797 690.793542 2388.370783 14706.620914
2026-04-19 30.202473 55.960929 110.843376 255.250653 712.749169 2592.459905 17765.150914
2026-04-26 28.460363 53.186782 106.514935 249.235838 713.126178 2699.921092 20189.152860
2026-05-03 26.820023 50.514092 102.186746 242.651989 710.177612 2792.163986 22720.071397
2026-05-10 25.353815 48.113078 98.282766 236.745138 708.438055 2891.790351 25652.982817